Breakdown and Prediction for Superbowl XLII

Everyone knows that the Patriots are “beatable.” There has existed a “blueprint” for beating them since they played the Colts in Week 9. The Giants have won 10 straight road victories, which, according to some columnists, make them the hottest team in the league. 99% of the columns you’ve seen this week have been on how the Giants can beat the Patriots. So here below are the factors that the Patriots probably have to execute to win the game. Why only probably? Because they prove time and again that they can find new, surprising ways to win and the Giants are playing a road game, which means they can execute the blueprint by playing the most flawless game in the history of the NFL.

1. Mindset: The Patriots are supernaturally focused, unbelievably well prepared, and are obsessively driven on doing their job. The Patriots have been in Superbowl-like pressure games since Week 9 and have a ton of guys that have already been to, and won Superbowls. The Giants have three guys who have been to a Superbowl.

2. Control the Line of Scrimmage. In the regular season match up, the Giants recorded 1 sack while Brady completed 32/42 passes for 356 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. They did that with the Pats starting right tackle and starting right guard out for that game. They are both back and will be better at handling the outside rushers. Left Tackle Matt Light will be matched up against Osi Umenyiora, which is a match up in favor of the Giants. One thing the Patriots like to do is use Kevin Faulk in the backfield for protection on Brady's weak side, and then roll him out for a short screen pass. This delays Osi, and it opens Faulk up just past the defender. If the Giants don't bring extra defenders from Brady's weak side (left side) you can expect to see a lot of screens to Faulk and Maroney.

3. Moss Factor: Randy Moss has problems getting off the line of scrimmage when he's manhandled, which I’m sure comes as a great shock to you. The Giants beat him up in their match up, as did the Jaguars and Chargers in the playoffs. We've all noticed offensive holding is no longer being called in the NFL, and the same can be said for defensive holding that occurs in the first 5 yards from scrimmage, which is what you have seen in replays on how Moss gets held off his routes. I have no statistical evidence to suggest Moss will come up big here, but it’s his first Superbowl and on the biggest stage, I don’t see him quitting on routes or allow corners to clutch and grab him at the line through the whole game. But if the Giants do contain him that means they rolled safety coverage to him and opened up the game for ultra-speedy Welker (on turf now) underneath, and Stalworth down the sidelines.

4. Environment. The Patriots have not played in weather above 45 degrees since Week 9 at Indy. Many of their road/home games featured high winds, including the regular season finale, and both playoff games in Foxboro. Why is that important? Because you can't air it out 40+ yards when the wind is swirling at the Meadowlands or Gillette Stadium. But in the wind-less, warm confines of the dome in Arizona, Brady will be in the same kind of environment he enjoyed for the first 9 weeks of the season. Remember what happened then? In addition to weather, the crowds at the Superbowl who can afford $1000+ for tickets are notoriously quiet. There will be no noise factor such as the one in the week 17 match up to force Brady to go to a silent count. This opens up the audible and communicating blitz reads clearer.

5. Take Away the Giants’ Strength. If you were to sum up how Belichick game plans for opponents you could just say “he will take away whatever it is that you do best.” How did the Patriots attack the Giants a month ago? They took away the strength of the Giants offense by limiting Brandon Jacobs to 66 yards on 15 attempts. This time Ahmad Bradshaw is back and should help build up those numbers if the Giants choose to go that route. Remember that Eli had the game of his life, passing for 251 yards with 4 TD's and 1 ill-timed interception on 22/32 attempts. Can he duplicate those numbers? Not with a game plan formulated over two weeks to disguise defensive packages and confuse Eli.

6. Red Zone defense. The Patriots are back to playing the kind of defense they did in winning Superbowls in 2001, 2003, and 2004. They "Bend but don't break." This means that offenses will get their yards against them, and if they don't make any stupid mistakes (turnovers, penalties), they'll get in the red zone. But the red zone is where the Patriots have excelled in the last half of the season and in the playoffs. Why? Because you have your very talented and smart, but also old/slow linebackers playing in a smaller field which allows them to cover everyone. The Patriots will be happy to give you the field goal, because they feel they can score touchdowns every time they get in your red zone.

7. Coaching. Check.

8. Intangibles. Brady or Manning down 7, with 2 minutes left in the 4^th quarter with the ball on their own 20. Which QB do you want?

9. Opponent had their game of the year against you and they still lost? Check.

Here is how I see this game playing out:

1^st Quarter: The Patriots and Giants are both limited on offense, but the Patriots will get one TD by the end of the quarter. The Giants will own time of possession by running Jacobs and Bradshaw and mixing in short passes. They will likely get a field goal out of one of their two drives. 7-3 Patriots

2^nd Quarter: The Patriots go to a hurry up offense (this could happen from the start) and score 10 points in this quarter. The Giants also score a touchdown to keep it close at the half. 17-10 Patriots.

3^rd Quarter: The Patriots adjust to the pressure and coverage schemes and strike quick and often. The Giants continue to have success in the running game and short routes, but aren’t getting anything over the top. By the end of the quarter the Giants are down 21 points and will be forced to abandon the run, culminating in an INT at the end of the quarter for Eli. 31-10 Patriots.

4^th Quarter: The Patriots shove Laurence Maroney down their throats, mixing in a couple of deep balls (1 or 2 being successful). Bradshaw takes a quick screen and turns it into a long touchdown run to give them some hope. Then the Patriots give the ball back to Maroney and Faulk, take 8 minutes off the clock and finish it off with a jump ball to Moss in the end zone. Giants don’t get a garbage time touchdown as Junior Seau forces a fumble of Eli and the Patriots recover, run once or twice, then kneel down. As they look up at the scoreboard and see Patriots 38 Giants 17, Belichick turns to Director of Personnel Scott Pioli to start discussing what to do with the #7 overall pick in the draft and who to target in free agency.

MVP: Tom Brady

X-Factor: Donte Stalworth

Enjoy the game. It won’t happen like that at all because no one ever seems to be right in how these things play out. But it should be a fun game. If the Giants pull off the upset, nothing will hurt as much as seeing an orgasmic Mercury Morris rap his way to bashing the Patriots. But if the Patriots win, the nation of Patriots’ haters will turn into those zombies from 28 Weeks Later, foam at the mouth, and rage against the cheating, classless, dirty players from New England. And that would make me happy most of all.