Coach of the Year

There have been a number of columns the last couple of days that have debated whether our favorite emperor of evil deserves to be considered for Coach of the Year.

Many people have chimed in on it and they fall in one of three categories:

1. Yes, because Spygate happened in the first half of week 1 and it clearly had nothing to do with winning games (others like Dan Reeves said it was all overblown anyway).

2. No, because he was caught cheating and he should be excluded in the same manner that Shawn Merriman was excluded last year because he was caught taking HGH. The precedent is there even if Coach of the Year is an AP award as opposed to Defensive Player of the Year, which is an NFL award.

3. No, because someone like Mike McCarthy is more deserving because he has done more with less. Belichick has a phenomenal team, which is why he wins, but the Packers (or Browns) do it because of great coaching. These people are split down in the middle on whether Belichick would qualify, but it wouldn't change their opinion.

Me? I'm actually in the #2 crowd. He got caught cheating this year, so he gives up any claim to that award. That's not the rule though, since it's an AP Award, but it's much better than the prevailing criteria that you have to have a terrible team the year before to even qualify.

Belichick won his only Coach of the Year Award in 2003. Why 2003? Because the Patriots missed the playoffs the year before. And we were still in that phase of "Patriots beat people with very average talent."

Here's a look at the past 10 coach of the year winners with their team's previous year record and the record they had when they won the award:



So what does this graphic tell us? Other than the Evil Patriots research department is really on top of things? First thing, the biggest anomaly is that there is no Tony "Stupid Flanders" Dungy. We'll get to him later

1. 8 out of 10 teams had losing records the previous year.

• The only 2 coaches with winning records in the previous year (Belichick and Reid) are also considered 2 of the top coaches of this decade (Stupid Flanders at #2 or #3).
  
• Both of these coaches reached the Superbowl the year before they won and the year after they won.
  
• If you want to win this award you only have a 20% chance of winning if your team had a winning record the previous year. And you better have reached the Superbowl that year.
• Both awards given to Reid and Belichick could easily be argued that they were makeups from not getting serious consideration the year before.

2. 3 of 10 coaches won in their first year on the job.

• Fassel (+4), Haslett (+7), and Payton (+7) added a total of 18 additional wins in their first year compared with the previous year.
• Fassel (-2), Haslett (-3), and Payton (-3 currently) subtracted a total of 8 wins in the year following their award.
• First time award winners seem to benefit from the adage "change is good" but it doesn't necessarily translate to the following year.

3. 3 of 10 coaches had the same record or better the year following their award

• Belichick and Reid maintained their winning records across all three seasons, while Lovie Smith went from 5 to 11 to 13 wins in his three years. Of course Smith is currently at 5-9, which means the trend stops there. But it was a good three year run. Of course, Belichick went 14-2 in the second year following his award and Reid went 13-3 in his second year and lost to Belichick's Patriots in the Superbowl.
• Winning the Coach of the Year Award is no indication of future success as only 30% of coaches were able to produce similar or better records the following year.
• Of that 70% that did not build on their award winning years, 5 coaches lost between 2-3 games more the following year, while two (Fassel and Reeves) lost 9 games each.

4. Why hasn't the most beloved coach in the NFL, Tony Dungy, received this award?

• He built the Bucs up from nothing (and a sordid history of nothing), and then went to the Colts and proceeded to have the 2nd most wins from the moment he got there until now (Belichick beats him by 2 wins in that span).
• He is easily the most respected coach in the league and loved by children everywhere.
• The answer? In Tampa Bay, he built the team but it wasn't until the year after he left that they won a superbowl. In Indy, he had Peyton Manning from day 1. Any team with Peyton Manning (and Marvin Harrison) is expected to win 10+ games each year before you factor in coaching.

So what does all this mean?

• It means that spygate or no spygate, Belichick's only chance of winning this year was to go 16-0. 15-1 would immediately rule him out.
• Tony Dungy is rarely discussed this season (again) as a candidate. Yet the "do more with less" mantra would seem to weigh in his favor since Harrison has been out almost all season, Freeney was lost for half of the season, and a number of other starters have gone down as well. Yet here they are on pace for 14-2 and the #2 seed locked up. If he doesn't win it this year, how does he ever get a chance unless he leaves Indy or Manning retires? Of course as soon as I finished that sentence I saw that ESPN.com's Michael Smith just wrote that Dungy and Staff Have Done Best Coaching Job of 2007.
  
• The most talked about candidates are: Mike McCarthy, Romeo Crennel, and Dick Jauron. Mike McCarthy has Brett Favre and a very young team around that. Right, but young doesn't equal bad, just like an old team doesn't equal good. He's a solid candidate because he fits in with the "you sucked so bad last year, that it makes this year look friggin awesome" mantra. Same goes for Romeo who had "hot seat" written all over him at the start of the season. Ditto for Jauron, who's candidacy took a hit losing to Romeo last weekend.

Now for the Evil Patriots Blog solution: Keep the AP Award for "Coach Who Sucked But Now is Good, But Probably Wont Be Next Year" and create an NFL "Top Coach Award" like they do in separating MVP and Offensive/Defensive Player Awards.

NFL Top Coach Award Candidates (ranked)
1. Tony Dungy
2. Anti-Christ
3. that's it. there is no one else.

Typical Sportswriter dialog on the subject -
Reporter 1: Who is the best coach in the NFL?
Reporter 2: Probably Belichick, but you could make a case for Dungy.
Reporter 1: How about their chances for coach of the year?
Reporter 2: No way, they have great teams. You don't need great coaching for those teams to be successful.

AP NFL Coach of the Year Award (ranked) - based solely on the mantra stated above
1. Jack Del Rio
2. Mike McCarthy
3. Romeo Crennel
4. Tony Dungy
5. Dick Jauron

So there you go. Pretty long post to get to the simple point that the Coach of the Year, much like MVP, is a really dumb award with fluctuating criteria left to the interpretation of the most lazy, bandwagon-riding experts out there, the sportswriters.