Week 14 Picks

Miami
Buffalo (-6.5) - I guess you have to take Buffalo here but I think it will be a close one and I think Buffalo is no longer fighting for a playoff spot, so an upset could be in the works. That said, Buffalo still wins. The Dolphins are just that terrible and the Bills will cover.

St. Louis at
Cincinnati (-6.5) - any other time and I would say 48-45 Rams, but this edition of the Rams isn't what we're used to and they won't be able to keep up with a receiving corps that NFL guru Anthony Smith calls better than New England.

Dallas at
Detroit (+10.5) - I've grown to hate Jon Kitna since he has become this outspoken jackass this season. So I'll go back to my roots and pull for the Cowboys (i was a 'boys fan growing up because my mother arbitrarily decided to decorate my room with cowboys-themed curtains and bedspreads). Detroit has no shot in hell and they won't get any where near 10.5.

Oakland
Green Bay (-10.5) - How can SI.com's Sportsman of the Year not play and prevail? Oakland is typical Oakland and the Favrerettes should be able to hold them to about 6 points total.

Tampa Bay
Houston (+2.5) - let's say Houston pulls an upset for the hell of it in this week's 'whogivesadamn bowl"

Carolina
Jacksonville (-10.5) - Rebound week for the Jaguars who sent a memo to the rest of the AFC that they will not be a factor in the playoffs with that awful performance last week against the Colts. But the Panthers sent that same memo three weeks into the season so the Jags win...but they don't cover.

Pittsburgh at
New England (-12.5) - It's hard to gauge how good the Steelers are this year, which I think is a notch well below their unlikely '05 superbowl team. I think Willie Parker is a whole level below Brian Westbrook and Willis McGahee so I'm not really that worried. It projects to be 33 degrees with little wind, so I'm expecting a fast start from the Patriots and a dominant route. I'm not even kidding. If they get up 14 early, all of the clock-killing and physical play advantages that people think the Steelers have with be negated and they'll be forced to have Big Ben throw it 35 times, which is not a good thing. Patriots win 38-17

N.Y. Giants at
Philadelphia (-2.5) - Despite Eli, the Giants will take this one no matter who starts at QB for the Eagles. I don't see Westbrook dominating the Giants run defense enough to make the difference he'd have to make on his own.

San Diego at
Tennessee (+1.0) - San Diego wins this one, which should be the third game of your 3-team parlay with Green Bay and Dallas. This is not a big enough game for Norv to screw it up.


Minnesota at
San Francisco (+7.5) - I look forward to the McFadden/Maroney backfield next season. Of course they'll probably trade down since picking a running back in the top 5 is usually a big waste of a draft pick, but who knows. The LB/CB depth in the draft doesn't look all that promising so you never know. My point is the 49ers lose big and the Patriots continue to look at their draft options.


Arizona at
Seattle (-6.5) - The most intriguing matchup of the week for me because I know nothing about either of them except that one is very overrated and one used to have Shaun Alexander. So let's say Arizona covers but loses.


Kansas City at
Denver (-6.5) - Rivalry Week! KC continues to suck and Denver merely underachieves, so Denver covers, just barely.


Cleveland at
N.Y. Jets (+3.5) - 3.5? That three-team parlay just jumped to 4. No way do the Jets come within 10 points in this game. This is my lock of the week. There is no chance the Jets are even aware that they're playing the Browns this week because they're terrified of what's coming next week.

Indianapolis at
Baltimore (+9.5) - Look for this quote from a Ravens defensive player after the game: "The Colts are much better than the Patriots. They didn't need the refs to help them." Colts win.


New Orleans at
Atlanta (+4.5) - If it comes down to rushing, then the Falcons might pull off the upset (seriously is there a bigger bust in the NFL than Reggie Bush?). But of course Drew Brees could remember he's Drew Brees and bust this open, which is what I'm thinking will happen.


Enjoy Week 14 everyone (though shouldn't it be week 13 since it's the 13th game on everyone's schedule?).

If you're going to the Patriots game on Sunday, for the love of god, makes some friggin noise.