Patriots, Jaguars, and Colts - How do they stack up?

If you ask most people who the biggest threat(s) to the Patriots are in the playoffs, they'll say the Colts and Jaguars in that order.

The Jaguars are on fire coming down the stretch to the playoffs. If this were baseball, they would be the Rockies (I don't think I have to tell you who the Patriots would be). While Fred Taylor is consistently being talked about week in and week out as the most underrated player (kind of a paradox in itself), David Garrard is having the 3rd best QB season in the AFC this year.


We all know about the Colts offense and a little about the defense, so here is a look at these three teams and how they look heading toward the playoffs. I'm doing it this week since the final game for all three will be no indication of their season.


There are a lot of numbers here but a glance at them tells you that each of the three teams has played comparably ranked opponents over that time. It's a big mix of really bad def/off units and top 10 ranked units. The only loss among the three teams in the past 6 weeks came on the Jaguars 3 point loss to the Colts.

We already know that the Colts and Patriots match up closely with each other. But looking at how the Jaguars are playing, it's not difficult to make a case that they could be a stopper as well.

A lot of us assumed that when Dwight Freeney went down in week 10 that the Colts would be cooked because the guy that demands a double team on the outside frees up an extra man to watch Robert Mathis, the other fierce pass rusher. The Colts have given up an average of 16.1 points per game over the last 6, but they've also faced some pretty bad offenses in that time. If the Colts have an advantage, it is that they are very familiar with both the Patriots and Jaguars, enough so, that they won't be surprised by anything either team can concoct on offense. The Patriots scored 28 points against the Colts in their week 9 match up, but that was with Dwight Freeney on the end causing havoc against Matt Light. Matt Light struggles against the very elite DE's in the league but against everyone else he's pretty dominant. That's bad news for a Colts defense who's offense is not head and shoulders above the Patriots like they were in last year's AFC Championship game.

The Jaguars have a healthy Fred Taylor tearing it up, which is a good reason why David Garrard has been successful and accurate. They are a run first team with a smart QB who is making few mistakes. The Jaguars' defense is a unit no one talks about, but is getting better each week. They are giving up 16.3 points per game, but like the Colts, have played some really bad offenses in the past 6 games.

The Patriots defense has come on strong toward the end which is typical of a Patriots defense. They have given up 15.3 points per game in the last 6 and the offenses they have faced have been comparable to those that the Colts and Jags have faced.

Patriots gave up 20 to the Colts
Colts gave up 25 to the Jags
Colts gave up 24 to the Patriots
Jags gave up 28 to the Colts

The Patriots (15.3), Colts (16.3), and the Jaguars (16.1) have given up a very even amount of points against pretty comparable offenses. It's safe to say that all three defenses right now are playing at a very similar level.

Therefore, it's really going to be the play of the offenses and special teams, that separates these three teams. This is why the Patriots are #1, Colts are a fairly close #2, and the Jaguars are a little more distant #3.

The Steelers, Chargers, Browns, and whoever gets in between the Titans and Browns have too many holes to beat either of the three teams above, which is why I didn't add them here. Stranger things have happened, but won't this year.

It does look like there are 3 very strong AFC candidates and 3 not so strong candidates. Unfortunately the way it works out, I would guess the Patriots will get the Jaguars in round 2, while the Colts get the Steelers or Chargers. So, just like 2004, if the Patriots are going to run the table they'll have to face the very best teams at each step of the way.