Stats Inc & ESPN.com's Jeremy Green Picks the Jaguars

Can you feel that rumbling? That's because it's Thursday which is the day of the week where all over-the-top hyperbole about who would win the game this weekend completely reverses on itself and media people start picking the underdog. Up first is Jeremy Green who writes for Stats Inc and ESPN.com. My first thought after reading the column was that it couldn't have been written by someone at a very credible sounding place like Stats Inc. But let's take a look at some of Jeremy's arguments:

"The Patriots have dominated teams with their talent and because they're intimidating. But Del Rio isn't easily intimidated and neither are the Jags."

Is Pete Prisco ghost-writing his columns? You're playing the intimidated factor here? This isn't Tiger Woods and his steroids-inspired fist pump on 18th green. This is football. The Ravens, Eagles, and Giants didn't look very intimidated to me. The Patriots actually bring out the best in their opponents because they know they have to be completely focused and execute when they play them. That's a better (though opposite and more accurate) argument to make here Jeremy.

"You know what I love about the Jags? They don't get blown out."

Three of their five losses were 29-7, 41-24, and 42-28. They kind of look like blowouts to me. I'm going to say the Patriots might have an edge here with 3 less blowout losses than the Jaguars. So I guess I love that more about the Patriots than I do about the Jaguars.

"Secondly, I don't really care what the Patriots' defense is ranked -- it is overrated. Yes, they were fourth overall, 10th against the run and fourth in scoring defense. Those are great stats, but they are misleading. The Patriots' run defense was not very good against Dallas, which averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Or Indianapolis, as Joseph Addai ran for 112 yards. Or Baltimore (Willis McGahee had 138 yards) or the New York Giants, who averaged over four yards a carry."

ok, so what's your point? Let's take a look at some highlights of the 2004 Superbowl Champion Patriots who gave up 3.9 yards per carry over the regular season.

• Week 1 vs Indy - gave up 202 yards rushing
• Week 4 vs Buffalo - gave up 123 yards rushing
• Week 8 vs Pittsburgh - gave up 221 yards rushing
• Week 14 vs Cincinatti - gave up 150 yards rushing

Not only did they win all of those games, but they went on to beat Indy in the AFC Championship, Pittsburgh in the divisional round, and Buffalo again in week 10. They didn't turn out too bad. The Jags are #1 in the NFL in rushing of course. The Patriots played 6 of the remaining 9 teams that are ranked in the top 10 in rushing yards. 6-0 against teams ranked in the top 10 isn't too bad since rushing the ball constantly is supposed to be the silver bullet to stop the Patriots.

"After going 16-0, I will call them the best regular-season team of all time, but six of those wins came against the Bills, Dolphins and Jets, who were a combined 12-36. Still, despite that, the Patriots have eight Pro Bowlers while the Jaguars had zero. OK, Fred Taylor got in this week due to an injury to Willie Parker, but that's not exactly a rousing show of respect."

What? You know this is crazy. Why not make the easiest and most poetic argument instead. The 2001 Patriots were underdogs with a great defense, solid (not great) running game, and a QB that didn't make the spectacular throw, but managed the game very well with no mistakes. Then they went in and beat the #3 offense in the history of the game when no one gave them a chance. Doesn't that sound like Jacksonsville? The no respect thing? That sounds like the Patriots. One team feels is motivated by a lack of voted-in pro bowlers while the other team is motivated by an opponent's player who called the Patriots cheaters. Which team do you think will be better at playing the disrespect card this week? Anthony Smith's guarantee was mostly taken out of context, but they destroyed him.

"I know Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio will be reminding his players all week that they had no Pro Bowl players voted in by their peers, opposing coaches or fans. He will be telling his team the Patriots' coaches, players and fans don't respect them since those are the people who make up the voting process. The Jaguars will be motivated."

No one feels more disrespected in this league than Rodney Harrison. "No one thought we could beat the Panthers!" But even Rodney wouldn't take that bait. This is one of the biggest reaches to play the disrespect card I've ever seen. And the Patriots are masters of exploiting anything no matter how insignificant in context (remember Brady blowing up at Schottenheimer over comments I'm still trying to decipher as insulting). But this is just silly.

"Teams that don't commit penalties don't get blown out."

Well in 2007 the Patriots and Jaguars both averaged 4.8 penalties per game. Of course Jeremy could have been a little more specific since neither the Patriots nor Jets went a single game without at least one penalty.

"Teams that take care of the ball don't get blown out."

Another statistic worthy of Stats Inc. Since his argument is just relative, we'll just note the fact that the Patriots led the league with a +16 turnover ratio and the Jaguars had a +9 ratio. So once again, very little chance of a blowout. I'm not sure that either of the last two arguments necessarily make the case for a Jaguars win, unless you mean moral victories compared with those of the Eagles, Ravens, and Giants.

"And in a twist, what the Jaguars do best on offense is also their best defense against the amazing Patriots offense."

Right, but why wouldn't the inverse of that statement be at least equally possible? The Patriots passing offense (historically great) can put up the points necessary for the Jaguars to abandon their running game to use the pass to catch up right? I think I saw that happen to a couple of teams this year.

"There really is not a defensive scheme yet devised to stop the Patriots' offense. It is the most explosive attack we have seen in a long time, but know this: New England won't be able to run on Jacksonville."

Why would they want to? How does that even become an issue? Even when they were blowing people out and averaging 5+ cards per carry, they still passed to kill the clock. And I have it on pretty good authority that you won't see them trying to overcome a Jaguars lead by running the ball.

"Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Co. can't beat you if they are not on the field."

I wholeheartedly agree here Jeremy. I don't see any way the Patriots offense can score while not on the field. And if the Patriots can't take the field at some point during Saturday night's game I think there is a real possibility they will lose.

"And undoubtedly, Del Rio will have a great game plan because he is one of the best coaches in the NFL."

Um..hello?



And in conclusion...

"A fan never thinks his team can lose, but no team is invincible. In the playoffs, it's one-and-done and anything can happen. Even Jacksonville beating New England."

I'll take the fan supporting that case of his 16-0 team over the Stats Inc guy that says he's not a fan of either team, but is rooting for bad weather to help slow the Patriots passing game to help support his vague laws of football blowout probability.